How can France, Scotland or Ireland win the Six Nations?

Jonny BlackJonny Black
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Round four of the Six Nations has left us set up for an incredible Super Saturday, where three teams will have a chance of winning the title.

France looked set to be going into the final round on the hunt for a Grand Slam, but an incredible Scottish performance saw them come out 50-40 victors at Murrayfield. Scotland lost their opening game of the tournament against Italy, but have won all three games since. Ireland also lost their opening game against France, but they fought their way to tough victories against Wales and Italy as well as an outstanding victory over the English at Twickenham.

Team Points differencePoints
France+7916
Scotland+2116
Ireland+1614

Round Five fixtures:

Ireland vs Scotland

Wales vs Italy

France vs England

How can France win the Six Nations?

France are set up in the best position with an equal number of points and a 58-point better points difference. The simplest way for France to win the Championship is if they win the match against England with a bonus point. If France win without a bonus point, they are relying on any result other than a bonus point win for Scotland. As Scotland play first, France will know what outcome is required as they start the match.

If France draw, they could still win the Championship as long as Scotland and Ireland draw or Ireland win without a bonus point.

A French loss would feel disastrous, although they could still win the Championship, as long as they pick up two bonus points and Ireland win without a bonus point.

How can Scotland win the Six Nations?

Scotland need to pick up more points than France to win the Championship. This is due to the far superior points difference that France possess. The only way if both sides score the same number of points that Scotland would win the Championship is if they beat Ireland by 58 points more than France beat England by. 

If France lose to England, any positive result will do for Scotland.

How can Ireland win the Six Nations?

Ireland have the hardest route to a Six Nations title as they sit in third. They have the home fixture against Scotland in the final round. Quite simply, they cannot win the Championship without a win. They will also be relying on the English to pick up a result against France to allow an Irish win to be enough. A bonus point win would help them if France were to pick up two points, either through bonus points or a draw. 

The summary

France: A bonus point confirms it- matching Scotland will be enough as long as they don’t lose to England.

Scotland: They must outscore France.

Ireland: They must beat Scotland and hope France lose to England.

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Jonny is a former rugby player in Ireland's club system and is an Ulster and Ireland fan. He has spent a number of years writing about football and this was what brought him to the Dave Sport Group. As an expert in Irish Rugby, his expertise also stretches to Super Rugby having lived in New Zealand previously.

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