Wales and the World Cup. For a country steeped in rugby history, their outings in rugby’s showpiece have been somewhat of a mixed bag. Third place in the inaugural World Cup in 1987 remains their best tournament to date. Since then, they have suffered three group stage exits, two quarter-finals and one heart-breaking semi-final exit in 2011.
Warren Gatland had the land of song singing once more as he steered Wales to the brink of success in New Zealand four years ago – only the contentious sending-off of captain Sam Warburton denying the Welsh a final against the hosts. Two Six Nations have followed since then and Gatland will head into his second World Cup at the helm determined to go one step further.
But if Wales are to thrive in the latter stages, they must first survive the ‘group of death’. Being drawn in the same group as two-time winners Australia is par for the course at a World Cup. Having a tricky fixture against Pacific Nations Cup holders Fiji is nothing unexpected for the Welsh either – just look at the last two tournaments.
But pulling out hosts and 2003-champion England in the draw too? Now that is slightly out of the ordinary. Three of the world top six nations all in one group is practically unprecedented – offering the harsh reality that at least one pre-tournament favourite will be going home early. The fact that Uruguay completes the group is merely a side note with the South American likely whipping boys.
But what of the current Wales squad that will contest the group? Gatland has kept the core of the side that went so close four years ago, only changing and tinkering when needed. Gatland’s side is very much settled with the Kiwi fairly certain of his strongest side. Stability is very much one of Wales’ strengths, with Gatland the longest-serving coach at the tournament.
In George North, they have one of world rugby’s superstars who will aim to shake off concussion concerns to light up the tournament. Meanwhile Leigh Halfpenny has earned the reputation as one of the most deadly goalkickers in rugby and will be sure to put away any penalties earned at the breakdown by Sam Warburton – a man who has lead Wales and the Lions to success.
Yet the biggest strength for Wales could be the halfback partnership of Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar. The Ospreys duo are set to star in their first World Cup and will look to continue the form that has seen them cement their place as Warren Gatland’s first choice. Biggar has finally fulfilled the potential to establish himself as Wales’ starting fly-half – showing his maturity to steer Wales to an impressive 12-6 victory over South Africa last year.
But it is scrum-half Webb who has the talent to light up this tournament. The 26-year-old was hailed as the Lionel Messi of rugby last season as he scored tries for fun at regional level before carrying that from to the test stage. A fantastic all-round scrum-half with an eye for the try-line could have a lot to do with how Wales perform.
The main weakness for the Welsh could be the front five. In the past, they have buckled against stronger scrums – most notably against England in the Six Nations this year. They have also struggled at the set piece – often failing to secure clean line-out ball. Two of the most consistent criticisms aimed at this Welsh side regard their game plan and mental strength.
Many critics have lambasted Gatland’s supposed stubbornness for his ‘Warrenball’ tactic – which is based about winning the gain line battle and choking the opposition with an aggressive defence. The tactic has proved effective although only two victories over the ‘big three’ nations in Gatland’s seven-year reign suggests a mental block, with the team failing to close out games from winning positions. Last autumn’s defeat to South Africa has gone some way to changing that perception.
So just how will Wales fare at the World Cup? Well, a prediction is effectively pointless given the numerous variables but it is worth a try. First up, Wales will face Uruguay in Cardiff. Anything less than a 50 point margin is a failure. And I am being generous there. Squad players such as Matthew Morgan – a player in the mould of Phil Bennett – and Hallam Amos will surely be unleashed to take apart the South Americans.
Next up is England at Twickenham. The big one. And I believe Wales will edge it. A bold prediction but there is some form of method behind my apparent madness. If you take England’s first choice front row to be Joe Marler, Tom Youngs and Dan Cole – and it appears likely it will – then I see no reason why Wales with a fit Samson Lee cannot get parity – even dominance – at the scrum. Add to this the clear dominance in the back row, stability and talent in the backline and the pressure on the hosts and I think Wales should have just enough.
The next task is Fiji. A tricky match with Gatland surely trying to juggle players in between the two crunch matches against England and Australia. Yet this Wales squad should just have too much to avoid the scalp. It could be nervous though – last year’s fixture against the Fijians should tell us that.
And that leaves us with the final pool match against Australia. Win that and you are likely looking at a quarter-final against either Scotland or Samoa and then possibly Ireland or Argentina in the last four. Lose and you are taking on South Africa and – if you navigate that obstacle – New Zealand in the semi-final.
Quite honestly, I predict Wales will exit at the quarter-final stage. But I type this with the same conviction as if I was to write semi-finalists, finalists, champions or even – perish the thought – group stages. One thing for certain is that Warren Gatland has a capable squad and will be a force if they get it right.
